It's spring, which must mean the Maple Leafs are having a playoff crisis
The calls to make significant changes to this roster are, once again, resounding. I'm just not sure how they do it
Just a couple of weeks ago, while considering possible Toronto Maple Leafs playoff preview ideas for theScore, I landed on the following concept: Marner’s Last Ride?
It had some good elements: Provocative idea, subject that was already catnip to a section of the online fanbase, punchy title.
But before I could even pitch the idea to my editor, I landed on a confounding element. Mitch Marner’s contract, while entering its final year next season, also has a no-movement clause that kicked in last summer.
That was pretty much that. As much as Marner might be the most sellable asset on the roster — since they just gave contract extensions to Auston Matthews and William Nylander and because John Tavares’ production is fading with age — there is also little point in imagining what Toronto might get for him while he is in possession of a NMC. Marner’s a year away from unrestricted free agency. What possible reason would he have to agree to a trade out of Toronto just to spend his walk year in the uncertainty of a new team?
I ended up writing a very different column, on how this Leafs roster, built around the familiar core of playoff underachievers, probably wasn’t going anywhere no matter what happened in this postseason.
It’s a theory that looks certain to be tested.
Already, as the Leafs swooned to a 3-1 series deficit to the Boston Bruins after a grim Saturday night loss on home ice, there are calls to tear it all down, blow it all up, shoot the Core Four into space, et cetera.
I get the sentiment. This is a uniquely frustrating team, so potent at times and yet seemingly unable to make that firepower translate to the second season. How many times do you need to see the same scenario unfold before you admit that the team, as constructed, isn’t working?
At least one more time, I’d wager.
I could, quite obviously, be wrong. Maybe Brad Treliving will somehow be able to sweet-talk Marner and his agent/father into providing him a list of acceptable destinations that would allow him to waive his NMC. But why would Marner and his camp agree to do that? Unrestricted free agency is the ideal scenario for any player, especially one with as impressive a resume, regular-season edition, as Marner. If he plays out his final year in Toronto he would then get to a point where every team can make him an offer and he can choose whichever one suits him best. (It’s also possible that he would follow Matthews and Nylander in signing a massive contract extension in Toronto before reaching UFA status.) That is far more appealing than, say, giving Treliving a list of three teams and trying to work out a new deal with whichever of those gives the Leafs the best offer.
Could Marner decide that he wants out? That he’s tired of being blamed for the Maple Leafs’ failures, even after a game in which he scored the lone goal? Sure. I mean, even his teammates seemed to be mad at him on Saturday night. It was like a live re-enactment of the comments section below any recent Leafs-related article. But even he did decide that he’s had enough of his hometown team — something for which there is, so far, zero evidence — then the leverage is all with Camp Marner. There’s no incentive for him to help Treliving out by expanding a list of possible destinations, or by engaging in contract talks with a potential new employer that would buy out his free agency. Would these kind of things help grease the wheels of a possible Marner trade? Certainly. Would he have any reason to do them? He would not. It’s true that if he becomes an unrestricted free agent he can only sign a seven-year deal, whereas if he signs an extension with a team that trades for him, it can be for eight years, but that extra contract year hardly makes up for the forgoing of UFA status.
Again, it’s easy enough to imagine a scenario where that kind of thing happens: Treliving makes some calls, and reports back to Marner that Anaheim has offered a great trade package provided he agrees to an eight-year extension that would make him the highest-paid winger in hockey. Great weather! The complete opposite of a high-pressure hockey market! What’s not to love? Other than, er, the total uncertainty of joining a new franchise.
There’s that kind of option, or Marner could play out his deal in Toronto, pile up another impressive statistical season, and see where that gets him. Seems like an easy call.
There’s plenty of evidence that these Leafs, as constructed, have a playoff problem. But it’s not Mitch Marner’s job to fix it.